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Will data centers raise my electric bill or cause blackouts?

Updated

General information, not a substitute for the advice of an attorney.

Short answer: Contested, and it depends on where you live and how much announced demand gets built. Data centers used 4.4% of US electricity in 2023 and could reach 6.7% to 12% by 2028 (LBNL); PJM's 2027/2028 capacity auction cleared at the FERC-approved cap (PJM). No opened source quantifies the effect on a residential bill.

The case that bills go up

  • PJM's December 17, 2025 auction for 2027/2028 cleared at $333.44/MW-day, the cap, up 1.3% from 2026/2027; total cost $16.4 billion. The forecast peak rose about 5,250 MW, nearly 5,100 MW of it attributable to data centers. PJM procured 134,479 MW but holds a 14.8% reserve margin against a 20% target, 6,623 MW short (PJM).
  • PJM cautions that capacity is a fraction of wholesale costs, wholesale costs are a portion of retail bills, and not all load pays the clearing price; it makes no claim about bill impact (PJM).

The case that blackouts are the risk

  • NERC's 2024 Long-Term Reliability Assessment rated ERCOT, PJM, MISO, SPP, New England, SERC-East, and others elevated risk and projected over 20 GW of newly contracted large loads in ERCOT by 2028 (NERC 2024 LTRA).
  • NERC told FERC that 1,500 MW of exclusively data center load dropped off in Loudoun County, Virginia in July 2024 and 1,800 MW in February 2025, and that ERCOT saw 25 crypto-mining load-loss events of 100 to 400 MW (NERC presentation to FERC). Its September 9, 2025 Level 2 alert cites multiple disturbances of 1,000 MW or more (NERC alert).

The case that the queue is inflated and rules are catching up

  • ERCOT reported about 410 GW of large-load requests in March 2026 (87% data centers) and about 474 GW by June 2026 (about 90%); only about 205 GW was eligible for its first batch study, and from 2027 its forecast will count only loads with an executed interconnection agreement (ERCOT, April 2026; ERCOT, July 2026). ERCOT's all-time peak is 85,508 MW (ERCOT).
  • Texas SB 6 (2025) sets a 75 MW threshold, a study fee of at least $100,000, disclosure of duplicate requests and backup generation, curtailability during firm load shed for loads connected after December 31, 2025, a 24-hour-notice emergency demand-reduction service, and large-load contributions to interconnection costs; the PUCT must revisit transmission cost allocation by December 31, 2026 (SB 6 text, Texas Legislature; enrolled text).

What is genuinely unsettled

How much requested load gets built, and when; how PJM capacity prices flow into a given utility's retail rate; whether SB 6 and the PUCT's 2026 review move new transmission costs onto large loads; and whether NERC's recommendations, which are not yet requirements (NERC alert), become enforceable standards. No opened source puts a dollar figure on a household bill, so neither does this page.

See data centers and land, the ERCOT queue, grid interconnection by market, and outage history by county and ZIP.

General information from the sources linked above, not legal, tax, or financial advice.

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